The stock-to-flow cross asset model of Bitcoin’s value now has a variance of -1.03, the most negative it has ever been. Do you believe the model is valid?

Graph [here]( The variance is currently -1.03, which is a measure of how far the actual price is deviating from the model’s prediction. The closest the variance was to this previously was the 16th of July 2017, nearly exactly 4 years ago.

This is not the most the model has ever deviated from the actual price, however. That was back on the 29th of November 2013, with a variance of +1.9.

What do you believe? The model was never valid? The model was previously valid but now is not? The model is still valid?

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  1. Look at the graph. How anyone could say with a straight face that this recent deviation invalidates the model given so much noise everywhere else is beyond me.

  2. The model will eventually be invalidated as BTC can’t go to infinity which is basically what the model projects at a stock to flow of infinity (when flow is 0).

    So if we know it will eventually be invalidated, why not today?

  3. So it’s invalid when it’s negative but not during those times when it’s positive?

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